Futures fluctuate considerably, market wait-and-see sentiment strong [SMM Silicon Manganese Futures Review]

SM2603 contract opened at 5,916 yuan/mt and closed at 5,916 yuan/mt, down 0.37%. The daily highest price was 5,972 yuan/mt, and the lowest price was 5,806 yuan/mt. Trading volume was 143,100 lots, and open interest was 260,989 lots. SiMn futures fluctuated considerably on the weak side today, with strong wait-and-see sentiment in the market. Cost side, manganese ore market prices remained high at the beginning of the week, and traders' offers stayed firm, with transaction prices for manganese ore consolidating at high levels. Supply side, newly added SiMn furnaces in the main northern production areas started production earlier, increasing capacity for standard-grade SiMn. Operating rates at alloy plants in south China remained stably low. It was understood that the intensity of electricity price preferential policies in Guangxi and Guizhou for 2026 needed verification, with most plants still maintaining off-peak production, and some choosing to temporarily halt operations. Loose supply pressure for SiMn persisted. Demand side, HBIS Group's SiMn procurement volume for January 2026 was 17,000 mt, compared with 14,700 mt in December, showing an increase. The market awaited the release of the new round of tender prices from downstream steel mills for SiMn. The SiMn market currently experienced volatile movements, and continued close monitoring of fundamental supply-demand conditions was necessary.